In 2010 the Rockefeller Foundation pit out a report called Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development
There were 4 Scenarios foreseen
LOCK STEP – A world of tighter top-down government control and more authoritarian eadership, with limited innovation and growing citizen pushback
CLEVER TOGETHER – A world in which highly coordinated and successful strategies emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched worldwide issues
HACK ATTACK – An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which governments weaken, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations emerge
SMART SCRAMBLE – An economically depressed world in which individuals and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing set of problems
quote In this report we share the outputs and insights from a year-long project, undertaken by Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network (GBN), designed to explore the role of technology in international development through scenario planning, a methodology in which GBN is a long-time leader.
Scenario planning begins by identifying forces of change in the world, then combining those forces in different ways to create a set of diverse stories — or scenarios — about how the future could evolve
Finally, a note about what we mean by “technology.” . Technologies can range from tools for basic survival, such as a treadle pump and basic filtration technologies, to more advanced innovations, such as methods of collecting and utilizing data in health informatics and novel building materials with real-time environmental sensing capabilities.
The LOCK STEP scenario set for 2012 was eerily prescient
In 2012, the pandemic that the world had been anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s H1N1, this new influenza strain — originating from wild geese (an inside joke? a play on wild goose chase??) — was extremely virulent and deadly. Even the most pandemic-prepared nations were quickly overwhelmed when the virus streaked around the world, infecting nearly 20 percent of the global population and killing 8 million in just seven months, the majority of them healthy young adults. The pandemic also had a deadly effect on economies: international mobility of both people and goods screeched to a halt, debilitating industries like tourism and breaking global supply chains. Even locally, normally bustling shops and office buildings sat empty for months,
The United States’s initial policy of “strongly discouraging” citizens from flying proved deadly in its leniency, accelerating the spread of the virus not just within the U.S. but across borders. However, a few countries did fare better — China in particular. The Chinese government’s quick imposition and enforcement of mandatory quarantine for all citizens
During the pandemic, national leaders around the world flexed their authority and imposed airtight rules and restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of face masks to body-temperature checks at the entries
Even after the pandemic faded, this more authoritarian control and oversight of citizens and their activities stuck and even intensified.
In developed countries, this heightened oversight took many forms: biometric IDs for all citizens, for example, and tighter regulation of key industries
Technology trends and applications we might see:• Scanners using advanced functional magnetic resonance imaging (f MRI) technology become the norm at airports and other public areas to detect abnormal behavior that may indicate “antisocial intent.
The application of health screening also changes; screening becomes a prerequisite for release from a hospital or prison
Technology trends and applications we might see:
• Scanners using advanced functional magnetic resonance imaging (f MRI) technology become the norm at airports and other public areas to detect abnormal behavior that may indicate “antisocial intent.” Note The coming of the Global Shtetl
• In the aftermath of pandemic scares, smarter packaging for food and beverages is applied first by big companies and producers in a business-to-business environment, and then adopted for individual products and consumers. Note smarter packaging for food and beverages is essential to save and store for the new economies which are replacing traditional agriculture with corporate NWO agriculture
• New diagnostics are developed to detect communicable diseases. The application of health screening also changes; screening becomes a prerequisite for release from a hospital or prison, successfully slowing the spread of many diseases.
• Tele-presence technologies respond to the demand for less expensive, lower-bandwidth, sophisticated communications systems for populations whose travel is restricted. Note Tele presence helps the New Elite to rule comfortably with out traveling thousands of miles for every meeting
• Driven by protectionism and national security concerns, nations create their own independent, regionally defined IT networks, mimicking China’s firewalls. Governments have varying degrees of success in policing internet traffic, but these efforts nevertheless fracture the “World Wide” Web